Maximum mean discrepancy gradient flow.

The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random graphs. Notably, the celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm achieves Bayes-optimal performance for the reconstruction problem of predicting the value of the Markov process at the root of the tree from its values at the leaves.Recently, the analysis of low-degree polynomials has emerged as a valuable tool for predicting computational-to-statistical gaps. In this work, we investigate the performance of low-degree polynomials for the reconstruction problem on trees. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that there are simple tree models with $N$ leaves and bounded arity where (1) nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple polynomial time algorithm and with robustness to noise, but not with any polynomial of degree $N^{c}$ for $c > 0$ a constant depending only on the arity, and (2) when the tree is unknown and given multiple samples with correlated root assignments, nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple Statistical Query algorithm but not with any polynomial of degree $N^c$. These results clarify some of the limitations of low-degree polynomials vs. polynomial time algorithms for Bayesian estimation problems. They also complement recent work of Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon who studied the circuit complexity of Belief Propagation. As a consequence of our main result, we are able to prove a result of independent interest regarding the performance of RBF kernel ridge regression for learning to predict the root coloration: for some $c' > 0$ depending only on the arity, $\exp(N^{c'})$ many samples are needed for the kernel regression to obtain nontrivial correlation with the true regression function (BP). We pose related open questions about low-degree polynomials and the Kesten-Stigum threshold.

Sampling from multimodal distributions is a central challenge in Bayesian inference and machine learning. In light of hardness results for sampling -- classical MCMC methods, even with tempering, can suffer from exponential mixing times -- a natural question is how to leverage additional information, such as a warm start point for each mode, to enable faster mixing across modes. To address this, we introduce Reweighted ALPS (Re-ALPS), a modified version of the Annealed Leap-Point Sampler (ALPS) that dispenses with the Gaussian approximation assumption. We prove the first polynomial-time bound that works in a general setting, under a natural assumption that each component contains significant mass relative to the others when tilted towards the corresponding warm start point. Similarly to ALPS, we define distributions tilted towards a mixture centered at the warm start points, and at the coldest level, use teleportation between warm start points to enable efficient mixing across modes. In contrast to ALPS, our method does not require Hessian information at the modes, but instead estimates component partition functions via Monte Carlo. This additional estimation step is crucial in allowing the algorithm to handle target distributions with more complex geometries besides approximate Gaussian. For the proof, we show convergence results for Markov processes when only part of the stationary distribution is well-mixing and estimation for partition functions for individual components of a mixture. We numerically evaluate our algorithm's mixing performance compared to ALPS on a mixture of heavy-tailed distributions.

In reinforcement learning (RL), one of the key components is policy evaluation, which aims to estimate the value function (i.e., expected long-term accumulated reward) of a policy. With a good policy evaluation method, the RL algorithms will estimate the value function more accurately and find a better policy. When the state space is large or continuous \emph{Gradient-based Temporal Difference(GTD)} policy evaluation algorithms with linear function approximation are widely used. Considering that the collection of the evaluation data is both time and reward consuming, a clear understanding of the finite sample performance of the policy evaluation algorithms is very important to reinforcement learning. Under the assumption that data are i.i.d.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Attention-based transformers have been remarkably successful at modeling generative processes across various domains and modalities.

We propose Energy-based generator matching (EGM), a modality-agnostic approach to train generative models from energy functions in the absence of data. Extending the recently proposed generator matching, EGM enables training of arbitrary continuous-time Markov processes, e.g., diffusion, flow, and jump, and can generate data from continuous, discrete, and a mixture of two modalities. To this end, we propose estimating the generator matching loss using self-normalized importance sampling with an additional bootstrapping trick to reduce variance in the importance weight. We validate EGM on both discrete and multimodal tasks up to 100 and 20 dimensions, respectively.

Markov state trajectories, where the transition kernel has a small intrinsic rank. In the spirit of diffusion map, we propose an efficient method for learning a low-dimensional state embedding and capturing the process's dynamics.