Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future predictions about the war-status of a country are valuable information. In this paper, we present the use of conformal prediction on temporally-dependent data to obtain prediction sets of possible future conflict state-sequences. More specifically, we compare the results of conformal prediction to a likelihood-based prediction strategy when the data are assumed to come from a discrete-state Markov process. A point-prediction may not supply sufficient information because the penalty for a wrong prediction is extreme, and so we consider a machine learning alternative that gives valid uncertainty quantification and is robust to model misspecification. In the data analysis, we present real forecasts of conflict dynamics across multiple countries. Lastly, we comment on the possible limitations of existing approaches for applying conformal prediction to Markovian data, where the exchangeability assumption is violated.

In reinforcement learning (RL), one of the key components is policy evaluation, which aims to estimate the value function (i.e., expected long-term accumulated reward) of a policy. With a good policy evaluation method, the RL algorithms will estimate the value function more accurately and find a better policy. When the state space is large or continuous \emph{Gradient-based Temporal Difference(GTD)} policy evaluation algorithms with linear function approximation are widely used. Considering that the collection of the evaluation data is both time and reward consuming, a clear understanding of the finite sample performance of the policy evaluation algorithms is very important to reinforcement learning. Under the assumption that data are i.i.d.

Attention-based transformers have been remarkably successful at modeling generative processes across various domains and modalities.

The training of language models is typically not an end-to-end process.

Maximum mean discrepancy gradient flow.

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